According to Conflict Intelligence Team (CIT) data Russian military camp in Yelnya (Smolensk region, Russia) is almost empty.
Russian military watchers have recently noted that a massive camp in Yelnya, Smolensk region, has nearly emptied.
— CIT (en) (@CITeam_en) February 6, 2022
We believe these vehicles have moved to Bryansk region to the south, to areas just dozens of kilometers from the Ukrainian border. Here is why (thread): pic.twitter.com/3j40l3KD1l
Konrad Muzyka of Rochan Consulting also reported on drawdown of Russian troops based on satellite photos by Capella Space.
Courtesy of @capellaspace, @CSBiggers and I took a look at imagery of areas in Western Russia that have recently been under cloud cover. There are some important changes in Russian force compositions and their locations. Firstly, Yelnya is being drawdown. pic.twitter.com/bm1DHGV0yG
— Konrad Muzyka – Rochan Consulting (@konrad_muzyka) February 6, 2022
CIT experts believe that all this equipment was transferred to the Bryansk region, to the south, to the training areas only a dozen kilometers away from Ukraine’s border. They say that the equipment stationed there belonged to the 41st Army of Central Military District (TsVO), transferred to Voronezh in western Russia from Siberia back in April 2021, and then transferred to Yelnya later.
The same convoy of the Central Military District was later filmed south in the Bryansk region of Russia.
This same CMD convoy, which includes Msta-B towed howitzers and advanced BTR-82 APC, was later filmed further south in Bryansk oblast (h/t @4emberlen @danvan71) pic.twitter.com/mIuyO7D0kf
— CIT (en) (@CITeam_en) February 6, 2022
According to CIT team, there are other evidences that supports the theory that machinery is moving south, such as this video of a train traveling from Yelnya to Novozybkov, Bryansk region.
This – together with reports about of troop movements to Crimea, Kursk and the Rostov region – indicates , according to CIT, that one potential scenario for a Russian attack could be a push south towards Chernigiv and possibly Kyiv.
We continue to monitor Russian troops’ movement on Ukraine’s border. Should you have any information or evidence of Russian troops or equipment movement, or any other information you want to share with us, please send it to us via email [email protected] or text us on social media.